The Future of Vermont: Growing Toward Affordability and Abundance
By Shirenomics Staff
Vermont stands at a crossroads, facing a demographic and economic reality that demands bold, data-driven action. The numbers are stark: an aging workforce, a dwindling talent pipeline, and a housing crisis that threatens affordability for working families. But Kevin Chu, Executive Director of The Vermont Futures Project, sees an opportunity—an inflection point where Vermont can embrace growth, innovation, and a collective commitment to shaping a thriving economy for the next generation.
Speaking at the Vermont Chamber’s Economic Conference, Chu laid out a vision as clear-eyed as it was ambitious: Vermont must grow—intentionally, sustainably, and inclusively.
For years, Vermont has grappled with the effects of stagnation. In 2000, the state had 226,000 working-age adults between 25 and 49. Today, that number has dropped by 30,000, while the number of residents over 65 has nearly doubled. As the labor market shrinks, the demand for workers far outpaces supply. A decade ago, there were two job seekers for every open position; today, that ratio is flipped, with nearly two jobs for every available worker.
"The root causes of our economic challenges aren’t a mystery," Chu explained. "We’re dealing with demographic decline and housing scarcity—and we have to tackle both simultaneously."
The Vermont Futures Project has set a long-term target: Growing the state’s population to 802,000 by 2035. It’s an audacious goal—one that aims to reshape the workforce, stabilize the economy, and, most importantly, create a more affordable future for all Vermonters. But this vision isn’t about explosive, unchecked growth. Instead, it calls for a modest but steady 2% annual increase, which, if realized, would revitalize Vermont’s economy while maintaining the character and quality of life that residents cherish.
A New Story for Vermont
One of the most compelling aspects of Chu’s message is the need to change Vermont’s narrative. For too long, the state has sent young people a disheartening message: Success means leaving. In a 2022 Vermont Public poll, 42% of respondents said they would advise an 18-year-old to leave the state in search of better opportunities.
That perception no longer aligns with reality. Vermont now has more job openings than job seekers, and across the country, professionals and families are looking for places that offer safety, sustainability, and a high quality of life. Vermont has all these attributes—it just needs to tell its story better.
"We need to stop assuming people will just choose Vermont," Chu emphasized. "We have to give them reasons to come and stay. More people need Vermont, and Vermont needs more people."
Building for the Future
If Vermont is going to attract and retain the workforce it needs, it must first tackle the housing crisis. The math is simple but sobering: The state needs between 24,000 and 36,000 new homes by 2029 just to meet current demand. Yet, Vermont is only permitting 2,500 homes per year—a number dictated not by market forces but by self-imposed restrictions like zoning laws, permitting delays, and regulatory hurdles.
"Vermont can do hard things," Chu said. "We legalized cannabis—why not housing?"
The solution isn’t just about building new developments; it’s also about unlocking latent capacity in existing communities. Nearly half of Vermont’s towns have fewer people today than at their historical peak. Restoring them to past population levels alone could add 70,000 residents, providing an economic jolt while preserving Vermont’s rural character.
Chu’s call to action is simple but profound: Vermonters must embrace abundance over scarcity.
The Path Forward
Growth can feel daunting, but it’s not about transforming Vermont into an unrecognizable place. Chu debunked a common fear: If Vermont reaches 802,000 residents, will it become overcrowded? Not even close. Even at that number, Vermont would still have just 87 people per square mile—a far cry from New Jersey’s 1,200 per square mile.
The real question isn’t whether Vermont will change. It’s whether Vermonters will choose to shape that change proactively.
"Vermont is either going to be a leader in what to do, or a cautionary tale of what not to do," Chu warned. "Time only moves in one direction, and we have to decide where we want to go."
The good news? The path forward is manageable. If every Vermont town adds just 20 new residents per year, the state will hit its target. If policymakers, business leaders, and community members commit to legalizing housing, streamlining development, and telling Vermont’s story, the Green Mountain State will not only survive but thrive.
Vermont’s economic future is unwritten—but it is ours to define.
Are you ready to be part of the solution? The Vermont Futures Project is seeking leaders, community members, and businesses to help drive this transformation. Visit their website, join the conversation, and take ownership of Vermont’s next chapter.
